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How the Mighty Fall

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Author Topic: How the Mighty Fall  (Read 137 times)
ctabuk
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« on: September 17, 2008, 10:50:28 AM »

Halifax Bank of Scotland are set to topple - Lloyds TSB to the rescue - merger talks started today.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWLA972420080917
« Last Edit: September 17, 2008, 10:53:34 AM by ctabuk » Logged

daniboy
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2008, 01:08:32 PM »

Just aswell I keep my money under the matress  Grin
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ctabuk
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2008, 01:26:37 PM »

You Have Money Dan???  We need to talk, best buddy of mine - there's this horse -it's running at Newbury in the 3 30 -it can't lose, a dead cert .......................................................
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treblesix
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2008, 11:08:48 AM »

Read all abart it!
Read all abart it!

http://www.bloomberg.com/index_americas.html

Looks as though the SEC is going to get a lot
tougher on Wall Street ... particularly on short
trading.

Personally, I have thought for some time now
that traders in the financial/commodity sectors
should be compelled to retain buys for 7 days
before reselling. That would stop all the destabilising
activity and "churning" of portfolios simply to
produce trader profits and commissions.

It is also interesting to hark back to when Bush spoke
out against the inflationary effects of speculators and
traders upon oil prices. A target price of $80 was mooted.
Within a couple of days, oil plummeted from ~$140
down to ~$100. Currently ~$90 ....hmmmmm.

Also interesting to hear politicians and pundits talking
about "the real economy" which affects voters as
distinct from the virtual economy of the incestuous
world of the financial sector.

Seems a pretty clear case that Wall Street alone is
the primary cause of "Inflation".... aided of course
by the institutions in other countries on the gravy train.

Payback time hopefully  Grin Grin Grin Grin   

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ctabuk
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2008, 11:35:37 AM »

You just beat me to it Mike - US shares are literally in 'free fall' with investors switching to goverment bonds.  It's Global meltdown time - survival of the fittest.  If you have cash - sit on it.
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treblesix
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2008, 12:49:45 PM »

LOl,

yesterday US 3 month gilts had lowest yield since 1954  :Smiley

Over 6 weeks ago in TWFOT, I forecast that the DOW
would be down to 11,100 by end of August give or take
a couple of weeks depending on how you could project
the 12 month decline graph. Seems to have been a
"conservative estimate". I expect the Dow will yoyo
up and down especially this week .... but I personally
do not see any real signs of bottoming out in the longer
term as yet.

The US economy this last year has been rather like
"The Grand old Duke of York" marching the economy
up and down hill .... and they keep ending up lower
down the hill whatever they have tried. I just do
not see how chucking a $trillion into a $gazillion
economy will make much more than a few ripples.

Perhaps Russia has got the right idea ... suspend
trading while you sort out your own domestic economy.

I guess over the next few years, most countries will
disentangle themselves from such a lethal dependancy
upon the US economy and the $US. I also suspect that
this will happen however tightly markets become regulated.

Interesting and more austere times lie ahead folks !
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ctabuk
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2008, 01:55:33 PM »

They are printing money - the world banks have just pledged a whopping $247 Billion of which Japan, GB, Canada, USA and others are putting into to calm the markets. It will have one very interesting effect - mass inflation.  In effect investors are placing dollars into hedging funds - or government bonds - the government in turn is using these currencies to prop up that which has been taken out of the share market - or put simply - printing currency.  Whooops.


Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve almost quadrupled the amount of dollars central banks can auction around the world to $247 billion in a coordinated bid to ease the worst crisis facing financial markets since the 1920s.

The Fed increased the amount of dollars that the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other counterparts can offer from $67 billion ``to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.'' The Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank also participated.

Policy makers have struggled to revive confidence in markets this week as investors stockpiled money on concern more financial institutions would fail after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the U.S. government bailout of American International Group Inc. The cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt climbed to a record yesterday.

``There's a complete lack of faith in the markets,'' said Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. ``There's a lot of cash hoarding and people losing trust in banks, so the central banks are acting to relieve that. This might not be the last time they have to act.''

Markets welcomed the announcement, which was made in statements from each central bank at 9 a.m. Frankfurt time at the start of European trading. The cost of borrowing dollars overnight slid to 3.84 percent from 5.03 percent yesterday. It was 2.15 percent last week and reached the highest since 2001 on Sept. 15.

Limit Doubled

The Fed, which is adding $50 billion into its own banking system today, will spray dollars around the world via swap lines with other central banks. They can then auction them in their own markets. The ECB, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank allotted a total of $64 billion for one day today.

``The timing, so early in the trading day, shows both the severity of the strains in the interbank market and as well the authorities' determination to resuscitate orderly functioning of the money markets,'' said Julian Callow, head of European economics at Barclays Capital in London.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2008, 01:58:37 PM by ctabuk » Logged

treblesix
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2008, 05:12:16 PM »

This is the real downline kicker for the US ....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXRPsaQU9ybY&refer=home

The central banks and Fed funds injection ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ahBSRLQsJFzI&refer=home

seems to have made very little difference in the US. Maybe the banks feel
happier, but after a brief flurry of activity the investors seem to have lost
the will to live dangerously. Just wondering how many minor players will
fold as a consequence of implosion of the "North Atlantic Bubble".

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treblesix
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2008, 10:12:51 AM »

Where now for capitalism?

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7621771.stm

Either way, the Fat Lady is not singing  Wink
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HHI Golf Guy
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2008, 01:03:23 PM »

The stock market used to be a place to make long term investments. But over the past few decades computer technology has changed the game completely. You can make instant trades. You can use software for analysis and research. You can use computers and PDA's to fuel rumor and speculation. The stock market is now a place where investors and speculators try to make a quick buck.

But I do find it odd that the SEC and the federal government are coming to grips right now that the market can be manipulated. Ya think?!

Of course, what started all of this was lending institutions trying to make a quick buck by handing out risky mortgages and then selling off those mortgages. That left some pretty big institutions (AIG and Shearson Lehman to name a few) holding the bag.

I still ask myself, "Why would a lender offer a $500,000 mortgage to a family that makes only $30,000 - $50,000 a year just because they could reasonably afford the first few years of the ARM?" The only answer is that they wanted to make a quick buck. Every single supervisor that rubber stamped those mortgages must have known that the housing market would crash because of this. I guess as long as some stupid bank or investment group kept buying up the paper it didn't matter.

So, what's next? A run on banks? Global economic depression? Governments collapsing? Anarchy in the streets?

I think the world economic situation can get a whole lot worse, but not for the reasons you might think. In a world of 24 hour news broadcats and every network trying to increase their TV market share we'll all be exposed to more rumor and speculation. THAT can cause the public to panic, and that could lead to a further economic collapse.
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2008, 08:05:04 PM »

It is interesting to compare how our Western economies
fared in the recent turmoil with Russia .

Surge forces Russian market close
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7624802.stm

The really significant part of the article ....

"Mr Putin said his country's economy was much more developed than before and had a much higher safety margin.

"We have no systemic problems in the Russian economy. All basic economic indicators are alright," he said.

High oil prices helped Russia recover from the economy's collapse in 1998. Analysts say the country is now virtually free of debt, boasts massive currency reserves and has a more diversified economy."

Guess we had better stop poking Russia in the eye with sharp sticks  Shocked
 

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treblesix
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2008, 11:37:38 AM »

"Dollar May Get `Crushed' as Traders Weigh Up Bailout "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGBXzUuCWbUE&refer=home

All kinds of other stuff also...
http://www.bloomberg.com/index_americas.html

I doubt that anyone really knows what will happen
this week in the markets.

Bush really knows how to wreck a country for years to come  Shocked
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Matt Inertia
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2008, 01:09:16 PM »

Does this have anything to do with halifax deciding to take my overdraft off me?
I had an arranged overdraft that wasnt too big and i asked them a month ago if they could automatically reduce by a set amount each month, they told me they dont have the capabilities to do that and id have to action it myself.

About a week ago i went to the cash point and it was empty (i class the overdraft limit as 0)! I phoned up and they said - due to some charges (ive only had about 3 bank charges in the last 3 years and the last one was from feburary!!!) weve decided to remove the overdraft and now you owe us the outstanding amount, which now has a lot higher rate of interest than the overdraft. They wanted the money straight away so i told them "no way" and they arranged for me to pay it back at a set amount every month.

So, they can allow me to pay it off monthly when its convenient to them and the debt has a higher rate of interest but when i asked for exactly the same setup a month back "they dont do that".
Now im in exaclty the same position as i was but theyre going to squeeze another 50 odd quid in interest out of me!
Is this halifax trying to pinch some pennies back?
Gripe over.... Grin
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ctabuk
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2008, 01:35:15 PM »

Yup, we noticed 4 months ago that it was getting tighter and tighter to get mortgage funds out of them. They were in deep doggy doo - arrogant little B's - serves them right.
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treblesix
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2008, 02:19:38 PM »

They all will be trying anything tto screw extra revenue
from retail and business customers, government rescues
,
shareholders, investors, savers, rights issues.

The current advice for ordinary folks is to thoroughly
check out alternative banks etc .... and just move
your cash (if any left ) elsewhere.

All the trades unions are getting bolshy again ... even the
cops want proper payrises and the right to strike. If we,
the consumers, went on a major purchasing strike, then
there would be mayhem in the financial and other
"rob-you-blind" sectors like energy.  Kind of a
"whoops there goes another rubber tree bank".

I somehow think a lot of folks will be moving back
to the traditional financial "Friendly Societies" and
the more recently trendy local Credit Unions.

Its going to be an interesting time in the next few months.

Some funny political punchups going on at the moment.
Liked "Two Jags" kicking "Jug Ears" in the nuts on TV  Grin

Also laughed at the remark some politician made that
" the Conservatives had changed from proud Etonians
and closet homosexuals ... to proud homosexuals and
closet Etonians". Vince Cable is the only LibDem MP
left with any sense and competence.

I suggest we should all start "Digging for Victory",
melt down all the banks into Spitfires and tanks
and declare the UK a neutral nation and tax haven.
That should sort it. Anyone not liking it or British
traditions could feck off back where they originated.

Rule Britannia, Britannia rule the waves ...etc.,etc.  Grin
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